How ToldYa Works

A cryptographic notarization platform for predictions — not a prediction market.

What ToldYa Is

ToldYa is a social reputation platform that lets users cryptographically timestamp predictions on the Solana blockchain. When a user makes a prediction, the platform stores a SHA-256 hash of the prediction text combined with a unique random salt on-chain (a “commitment”). At a later date the user reveals the original text, and anyone can independently verify that the hash matches — proving the prediction existed before the outcome was known.

The purpose of ToldYa is to build a publicly auditable track record of prediction accuracy. Users earn credibility scores, streaks, achievements, and tier promotions based on the quality and consistency of their predictions over time. The platform is analogous to a public notary for ideas: it proves when something was said, not what will happen.

Core Mechanism: Commit-Reveal Notarization

Every prediction follows a two-phase cryptographic protocol:

1. Commit. The user writes a prediction. The app computes a SHA-256 hash of the text combined with a unique random salt and submits it to the on-chain program. The hash, the user’s public key, and a Solana slot timestamp are permanently recorded. The prediction text itself is not stored on-chain and cannot be derived from the hash.
2. Reveal. After the predicted event occurs (or a self-selected reveal date arrives), the user publishes the original prediction text. The app recomputes the SHA-256 hash locally and submits it to the on-chain program, which verifies it matches the stored commitment. If it matches, the reveal is accepted and the prediction becomes publicly visible with its original timestamp.

This mechanism is mathematically identical to a sealed-envelope notarization. It does not involve any financial position, order book, counterparty matching, or price discovery process.

Fee Structure

ToldYa charges a flat protocol fee for each commitment transaction. This fee is identical regardless of the prediction’s subject matter, timeframe, or likelihood. It covers Solana network costs and platform operation. The fee is configured by the protocol administrator and applies uniformly to all users.

Separately, creators may set an optional access fee for viewing the full text of an unrevealed prediction. This is a content-access payment — structurally identical to a paywall on a publishing platform. Ninety percent of the access fee goes to the prediction’s author; ten percent is retained by the platform as a service fee. Access fees are not contingent on the prediction’s outcome and carry no financial exposure for either party.

Reputation & Credibility System

The primary reward mechanism on ToldYa is reputational, not financial. Users accumulate:

• Credibility Score — a composite metric reflecting prediction accuracy, consistency, and community verification.
• Streaks — consecutive days of active participation.
• Achievement Tiers — milestone-based unlocks (e.g., number of verified reveals, vouch count) that grant additional platform features such as expanded commitment slots.
• Community Vouches — other users can vouch for a prediction’s accuracy after reveal, adding social verification to the cryptographic proof.

None of these reputation metrics are tradeable, transferable, or redeemable for monetary value. They exist solely to establish and display a user’s prediction track record.

Peer Credibility Challenges

ToldYa allows two identified users to create a peer-to-peer credibility challenge. Both parties deposit a small, symmetric credibility bond (minimum 0.001 SOL) into an on-chain escrow account. The bond serves as a signal of conviction — a “skin in the game” mechanism that adds weight to a public claim.

Credibility challenges are structurally distinct from financial trading:

• Both parties deposit the same fixed amount. There is no variable pricing, leverage, or position sizing.
• Challenges are between two specific, identified users — not an open market. There is no order book, no liquidity pool, and no anonymous counterparty matching.
• Positions cannot be transferred, sold, or traded. Once a challenge is created, the two participants are the only parties involved until resolution.
• Resolution is decided by both parties: each votes on the outcome. If both agree, the winner receives the pot. If they disagree or a party does not vote before the deadline, stakes are refunded equally. No external price oracle is used.

Daily Challenges

ToldYa features curated daily prediction topics designed to encourage participation and build prediction skills. Daily challenges are platform-curated prompts (e.g., “Will BTC close above $100K this week?”) that any user can respond to using the standard commit-reveal mechanism.

Participation in daily challenges follows the same commit-reveal flow as any other prediction. Users submit a hashed commitment, later reveal their prediction, and earn credibility based on accuracy. Daily challenges are a content and engagement feature, not a pooled-entry financial game.

ToldYa vs. Prediction Markets

The following table summarizes the structural differences between ToldYa and regulated prediction markets such as event-contract exchanges.

On-Chain Transparency

All commitment hashes, reveal verifications, and credibility challenge escrows are recorded on the Solana blockchain. The on-chain program is open-source and independently auditable. Every transaction — including fee transfers, escrow deposits, and commitment timestamps — is publicly verifiable through any Solana block explorer.

ToldYa does not custody user wallet funds. Users connect their own self-custodial Solana wallets, and all on-chain operations require explicit wallet approval. Challenge stakes are held in a program-controlled escrow until resolution.

Security Status

ToldYa's on-chain program has been tested with automated security tooling — including static analysis (Clippy pedantic), fuzzing (cargo-fuzz), mutation testing (cargo-mutants), and formal verification (Kani). However, the program has not yet undergone a formal audit by a professional third-party security firm.

• Do not deposit more SOL than you can afford to lose.
• Challenge escrow funds are held by the on-chain program. A bug in the program could result in locked or lost funds.
• A formal third-party security audit is planned when project revenue can support it.

The full source code is open-source and available for independent review.

Summary

ToldYa is a social reputation platform built on cryptographic notarization. It allows users to prove when they made a prediction, build a verifiable track record, and earn credibility within a community of forecasters. It does not operate an order book, does not facilitate the trading of outcome shares or derivatives, does not offer variable pricing based on probability, and does not provide financial returns contingent on prediction outcomes. Its revenue model is based on flat service fees and content-access payments — standard monetization patterns used across social media and publishing platforms.