Predictions

ToldYa predictions are built on a commit-reveal model anchored to Solana. This page documents what is currently implemented in code, including feature-mapped modules and default-enabled modules that are currently outside the feature map.

Core Commit Model#

Commit hashes are produced with domain-separated SHA-256 (TOLDYA_V1) and stored in a commit PDA derived from ["commit", creator, commitment].

On-chain commit accounts currently store creator, commitment hash, slot/timestamp, status, reveal reference hash, bump, and version metadata.

Current Creation Modes#

The web create flow currently exposes:

• Standard — immediate commit with no scheduled reveal date.
• Time capsule — includes a scheduledRevealAt timestamp in client payloads.
• Collaborative mode UI — present in web routes, while API-side collaborative behavior is exposed under dedicated collaborative route modules.

Counter-Commits#

Counter flows are implemented in the API service under core routes, including:

• POST /api/v1/commits/:id/counter
• GET /api/v1/commits/:id/counters
• GET /api/v1/commits/:id/debate
• GET /api/v1/debates/active

Threads#

Threading is also core-route functionality:

• POST /api/v1/commits/:id/reply
• GET /api/v1/commits/:id/thread
• GET /api/v1/commits/:id/replies
• GET /api/v1/threads/:id, /api/v1/threads/trending

Reveal, Retraction, and Amendment#

Reveal publishing is handled by POST /api/v1/reveals, with retrieval through GET /api/v1/reveals/:commitPda.

Retractions and amendments are available via core routes such as /api/v1/reveals/:id/retract and /api/v1/reveals/:id/amend, including history lookups.

Anchors and Verification Surfaces#

Anchor status is exposed via GET /api/v1/anchors/:commitId. Current code reports a primary Solana anchor and leaves cross-chain anchors empty until implemented.

The anchors route module is currently not mapped in ROUTE_FEATURE_MAP, so it registers by default.

Feature-Flagged Prediction Modules#

The following mapped modules exist in source and are disabled by default unless their feature flags are enabled:

• ADVANCED_COMMITS — behavioral commitments, meta-commitments, auto-reveal, dead-man switch, calibration.
• LEGACY — legacy instructions, abandonment, confidence, and footnote modules.
• SOCIAL/TEMPORAL/MEMORY — collaborative/group, timeline/arcs, reflection-style extensions.

Current route-registry caveat: modules not in CORE_ROUTES and not in ROUTE_FEATURE_MAP also register by default. In prediction-adjacent flows this includes /api/v1/anchors/:commitId and /api/v1/resolutions/:id.

See Getting Started for end-to-end flow details and Developer API for route-level references.